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Sunday, October 4, 2009

NFL analysis: The forecast after 3 weeks of football

Who's HOT: Top 5 teams in the NFL through week 3

Things are looking sky-high for Willis McGahee and the Ravens.
1. BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-0)- The Ravens have been a winning team over the past few years without any kind of offense at all. They're defense was that good. News flash for NFL Nation: Their defense is still that good. Proof: They lead the NFL with an average of 51 RUSHING YARDS ALLOWED PER GAME. Adrian Peterson usually gets that more than that in a half. That statistic is nothing short of insane. News flash #2: Now they've got anoffense. Not just an offense, a juggernaut offense with a ridiculously talented quarterback. Proof: They're 2nd in the league with an average of 430.3 total offensive yards per game. Don't look now, but I wouldn't rule out a 15 win season for this squad. Yes, they are THAT good.

2. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (3-0)- Even with the departure of Tony Dungy, we knew the Colts would be winners. Heck, as long as Peyton Manning is under center, you could put a JV high school team behind him and he'd still win. Their offense is cookin' as usual, and their defense is decent... if you don't believe that, check out the fact that they just held Kurt Warner and the reigning NFC champion Cardinals to 10 points last night. Nothing has changed for this club, who look to extend their NFL record of consecutive 12 win seasons to 6. Their annual dominance is so consistent that it has me wondering if they'll eventually get boredof all this winning.

3. NEW YORK GIANTS (3-0)- Business as usual for these guys. Even with the loss of his two starting receivers (Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer) and a 1,000 yard running back (Derrick Ward), Eli Manning continues to prove the the world that he's no joke. The Giants pass rush is the best in the bigs and they lead the NFL in passing yards allowed per game so far (124.0).

4. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-0)- It begins with Drew Brees, and it ends with Drew Brees. As goes Drew, so go the Saints. A 6 touchdown game to start the season wasn't a bad idea for Brees, by the way. He leads the NFL with a 118.1 quarterback rating and 9 touchdown passes, and he's 6th in the league with 841 yards as well as 2nd in completion percentage with a 69.1 mark. Hard to argue with those numbers. New Orleans will benefit from the lack of competition in their division, since their only real obstacle now is Atlanta (Tampa Bay and Carolina have looked horrendous so far).

Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson (right) will have a lot to celebrate about this season.
5. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (3-0)- Brett Favre finallyshowed yesterday that he can still wing it when he has to, although the freak show who lines up in his backfield will continue to handle most of the offensive weight. Favre is a savvy vet who knows how to manage games, Adrian Peterson is an uncontainable beast, and the defense is as rock solid as ever. Nobody in their division compares to the Vikings, expect to see a lot of purple come January. At this point the Giants look like the only threat to Minny's march to Tampa.


Who's NOT: Worst 5 teams in the NFL through week 3

Things are looking bleak for Eric Mangini and his Cleveland Browns.
1. CLEVELAND BROWNS (0-3)- If the Browns had let Brady Quinn loose his second year and simply let him play, they wouldn't be where they are now. But their insistence on keeping Derek Anderson... and constantly having both quarterbacks fight for their jobs... is showing up in the standings (the Browns are 0-3 while average an NFL worst 218 total yards per game). Both quarterbacks look very uncomfortable, because they're constantly looking over their shoulder. They are walking on eggshells with their new head coach, and they know it. Eric Mangini has done nothing short of a petrifyingly horrendous job in his first season as head coach of the Browns, from the handling of his quarterbacks to his playcalling. The players have no faith in him, his staff, or each other. All this combined with the general lack of talent on the roster makes their 0-3 record (outscored 95-29 through the first 3 games) hardly surprising.

2. ST. LOUIS RAMS (0-3)- So much for Steve Spagnuolo bringing discipline and defensive expertise. The Rams coach has found himself looking at the scoreboard in disgust more than anything else. Hate to say it, Rams fans, but it is time for Marc Bulger to LEAVE. And no, Kyle Boller doesn't cut it, either. If I were a Rams fan, I would be hoping to be the worst team in the league to get the #1 pick in the draft to have a shot at drafting a franchise quarterback to lead St. Louis out of this mess (Sam Bradford?)

3. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (0-3)- I guess the Bucs didn't learn from Cleveland's example. They have 3 quarterbacks (veteran Byron Leftwich, 2nd year man Josh Johnson, and rookie multimillionaire heir apparent Josh Freeman) all fighting for playing time. Leftwich started the year as the starter, but 32 year old head coach Raheem Morris informed his team today that Johnson will start next week. They really should just let Freeman play, since they just spent a first round pick on his and acclaimed him the future face of the franchise. But no, they want to have these three quarterbacks battle for the job all season. Can you find a better formula for an NFL team to achieve ultimate failure, humiliation and utter embarrassment? Not me either.

4. OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-2)- I know they do have one win on their record, but that win may be the only one they get all year. Even with the addition of the walking mountain Richard Seymour, their defense is still porous, they have a volatile head coach who got in trouble for punching one of his assistants in the jaw in a philosophical disagreement, and their former no. 1 overall selection is failing miserably at quarterback. JaMarcus Russell has a rating of 39.8, with only 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions in his first 3 games (plus a completion percentage of 41.3). To win in this league, you've GOT to be able to throw the football. The Raiders can't throw, and they also can't run, catch, or tackle. Another hellacious year for Raider fans.

Brace yourselves in KC: It'll be a painful year at the Arrowhead.
5. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (0-3)- How impatient and ignorant can a coach/fans be? To already be calling for a replacement of $50 million man Matt Cassel at quarterback is the height of impatience. The guy is playing with a bum knee, and when he has payed he hasn't been horrible. Cassel was brought to the Chiefs to be the quarterback he was in New England, not Joe Montana. Rookie head coach Todd Haley is showing his lack of intelligence as well by publicly acknowledging that Cassel's job is unstable and on a week-by-week evaluation plan. Sorry Todd, but you're an idiot. The Chiefs had a chance to do something special this year, but a green head coach and a horrendous defense (oh, did I forget to mention Larry Johnson's incompetence at runningback?) has them right back where they were last season.

On the verge: 5 teams poised to strike

1. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)- McNabb or no McNabb, the Eagles are in good hands with Kevin Kolb (who became the first ever NFL quarterback to throw for over 300 yards in his first two career starts) or Michael Vick. Their destruction of Kansas City yesterday displayed once again what this team is capable of. DeSean Jackson will need to continue competing at a high level for the Eagle's offense to stay potent, but whatever the offense lacks the defense is capable of picking up. These guys could get really hot really fast and make some serious noise in the NFC.

Mark Sanchez and the Jets have a lot to smile about.
2. New York Jets (3-0)- The Jets are first in the division, so I know it's kind of weird that they're on the "On the Verge" list instead of the "Who's Hot" list. Although the Jets are 3-0 and got an exhilarating win over the Patriots in week 2, they still have something to prove to the league. They still need to get more consistent on offense to prove they're not a fluke. When their defense is is dominating like they have been the first 3 weeks, it's easy to manage an offense, but it remains to be seen what rookie playcaller Mark Sanchez can do when asked to win a football game. Despite these legitimate question marks, the Jets find themselves in a good position heading into week 4 and they've really bought into new coach Rex Ryan's system. Their confidence is oozing... always a good thing.

3. Miami Dolphins (0-3)- They're 0-3, but don't count the Dolphins out. They are way too good to keep going like this. The media loves to crap on Chad Pennington, but lest they forget, this is a man who has a better completion percentage than any quarterback in NFL history with at least 1,500 passes (66.1%). He only threw 7 interceptions last season and is a master caretaker. Teams who don't turn the ball over usually win football games. Ronnie Brown is poised to explode any game now, and we all saw what the Dolphin defense is capable of last year... Jason Taylor's return can't hurt either. I know it's tempting to chalk them up as a one year wonder, but hold off for a couple weeks before you do that.

4. Atlanta Falcons (2-1)- The Falcons experienced a setback in losing to the vulnerable Patriots this week, but Matty Ice and company are still burning with confidence and they know what they're doing. Tony Gonzalez has really aided the offensive production this season, and this team will only continue to get better as Ryan gets more experience. They're a legit threat to the Saints for the NFC South crown.

Don't look now, but the 49ers are buying into Singletary's program... and it's working.
5. San Francisco 49ers (2-1)- Don't lie. You doubted Mike Singletary last year too. You thought he was too brash with his players, too hardcore and not adaptive to the modern game. You thought he'd fail just like everyone else thought. Well, I'm not going to say we were wrong just yet, but it sure looks like he's got his 49ers back in playoff contention. Even though we're only 3 games in, the 49ers lead the division and look like they might be able to hold their own this year in the annually weak NFC west.

Say what???: The biggest positive surprise in the NFL through week 3

The Broncos have successfully fended off their first 3 challenges of the season.
DENVER BRONCOS (3-0)- Hey, I'm going to take over your football team at 32 years old and anger your franchise quarterback, trade him, tick my All-Pro receiver off so much that he'll ask to be traded, and ignore my incompetent run defense altogether. But I'm going to win my first 3 games as head coach of your football team. If I said this to you, and if you know anything about football, you would smack me upside the head and laugh at my stupidity. But hey, Josh McDaniels just did it. I think he showed his immaturity in he numerous offseason gaffes, most notably (but not limited to) the Jay Cutler saga, but somehow he's pulled the remnants of what he inherited together and made them something worth noticing. I would be surprised if Denver kept this up all year, but hey, give it to them... you didn't think they'd win their first 3 games either.

What happened...?: The biggest disappointment in the NFL through week 3

Tennessee is still chasing that elusive win #1.
TENNESSEE TITANS (0-3), NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-1)- These two have got to be a tie. Tennessee has already matched last year's regular season loss total (they were 13-3 and the first seed in the AFC last year). Their 0-3 record so far this year is a result of untimely lapses by their defense. They could easily be 3-0, it's just those third downs, those late drives, those crunch situations that could mean a win or a loss that the defense has blown so far. The Titans find themselves in the cellar of the AFC North as a result. The Patriots have also not lived up to their expectations in the beginning of this season. New England could easily be 1-2- if it weren't for Tom Brady's magical fourth quarter in week 1 then they'd be looking at disaster. The offensive line thus far has been horrendous, and they are the major reason for the Patriots' shaky start offensively. Brady has been missing more open receivers than usual as well. The league now views the Brady-led Patriots as vulnerable, and the points of attack for opponents will be much more aggressive. Jerod Mayo's knee injury has also been a big blow. Bill Belichick will need to make some serious adjustments if he wants to keep his crew up to speed with Baltimore and Indianapolis.
Tom Brady has spent way too much time lying on his back all season.


With Flacco on fire, the Lombardi Trophy is coming into near sight for the Ravens.
Forecast: Predictions for the Rest of the Season

AFC EAST
1. New England- Eventually they'll put it together...
2. New York Jets- A wild card berth is likely.
3. Miami Dolphins- Tony Sparano won't let his reiging AFC East champs finish in the cellar.
4. Buffalo Bills- Come on, it's Buffalo. Of course they finish last.

AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens- Likely going to get a bye in the playoffs, possibly home field advantage.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers- Even with a 1-2 start, the defending champs are not going to miss January football.
3. Cincinnati Bengals- They've shown promise, but they don't have enough to get them over Baltimore or Pitt.
4. Cleveland Browns- They're so bad, they may end up with the #1 pick in the draft.

AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts- It's Peyton Manning we're dealing with here, where else would the Colts finish but first?
2. Houston Texans- Wild card contender.
3. Tennessee Titans- The 0-3 start will really hurt them in the stretch run.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars- Obviously the worst team in this division.

AFC WEST
1. San Diego Chargers- LT is no longer LT, but luckily for the Chargers, Philip Rivers is in the prime of his prime.
2. Denver Broncos- They won't be a trainwreck after all...
3. Kansas City Chiefs- They started off on the wrong foot, it'll be near impossible to rectify it at this point.
4. Oakland Raiders- The JaMarcus Russell experiment ends here.

NFC EAST
1. New York Giants- Definitely the best team in the NFC.
2. Philadelphia Eagles- Wild card team, for sure.
3. Dallas Cowboys- Too inconsistent- time is running out for this team to go far.
4. Washington Redskins- Heck, they just lost to the LIONS. I repeat, the LIONS.

NFC NORTH
1. Minnesota Vikings- Super Bowl contender.
2. Green Bay Packers- Seeing Favre win the division in Minnesota will be enough to make some cheeseheads commit suicide.
3. Chicago Bears- The addition of Cutler was great, but until they get some targets for him, it'll be the same old in Chicago.
4. Detriot Lions- Hey, no matter what they do from here on out, they won a game... a major improvement from last season.

NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons- Matt Ryan is THE MAN.
2. New Orleans Saints- Drew Brees is THE OTHER MAN.
3. Carolina Panthers- Jake Delhomme officially SUCKS.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- What a pitiful excuse for an NFL football team.

NFC WEST
1. Arizona Cardinals- Yeah, they'll end up winning the division again. Barely.
2. Seattle Seahwaks- Matt Hasselbeck is back, they have a chance to win the division.
3. San Francisco 49ers- If Frank Gore keeps it up, they might even usurp Arizona atop the division throne.
4. St. Louis Rams- The only team in this division without a legitimate chance to make the playoffs.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts

**MVP** It'll come down to a race between these two Hall of Famers.

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